Chaos Reigns in Sudan While Low Intensity Conflict Rages

More than 10 months in to Sudan’s civil war it has morphed into a low-intensity conflict but with the warring sides seemingly adamant to shun mediation attempts and fight on.¹ Analysts, however, say the relative lull in fighting is not stopping the war between the army and powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces from deepening ethnic divisions in the vast Afro-Arab nation that could take years, possibly decades to heal after the guns fall silent.² “The racist and tribalist narrative is used in this war as a military and political tool,” said prominent Sudanese analyst Osman al Mirghani.³ “The RSF employs narratives about marginalisation and the grip on power by Arabized north fought with non-Arab or non-Muslim rebels, seeking what they viewed as a fare share of national resources or an end to discrimination.⁴

Some of these conflicts formally ended, while others become dormant, but the root causes were never adequately dealt with.⁵ The latest bout of civil strife in Sudan began last April when simmering tensions between the army and the RSF over details of the nation’s democratic transition boiled over into violence.⁶ The fighting, mostly taking place in the capital city Khartoum, has to date displaced nearly eight million people and given rise to a major humanitarian crises.⁷ There are no precise numbers for the dead or injured.⁸ One figure often cited for the death toll is 10,000, but the actual number is believed to be considerably higher.⁸

The war is taking its toll on the Sudanese people. When war is waged the powerful who are in charge usually get by unscathed. The Junta of the formal military remains firmly entrenched in Khartoum and the northern parts of Sudan while RSF forces control vast swathes of the south. Since the secession of South Sudan in 2011, Sudan proper remains a complex and diverse nation where the threads that bind the fabric of Sudanese society are beginning to loosen and now unravel. The key to exerting pressure on both sides to end the conflict is to prevent the sale of weapons and ammunition less the situation leads to Sudan becoming another Yugoslavia. Sudan is a divisive nation where peoples of different skin tones and skin colours are interspersed. Since the out break of violence from last year, various Sudanese have been compelled to flee, left, right and centre.

In wars such as these it is the children who suffer the most. RSF is a paramilitary mercenary group that has no place in determining the country’s future that should be in the hands of the Sudanese people. Most of the current conflict has its roots in the 2019 overthrow of former Sudanese President and dictator Omar al Bashir and what was to come next. Most if not, everyone wanted a transition to new elections and possibly a new constitution. Sudanese society has been heavily battered by the current conflict and is on the brink of collapse. There is no way of knowing how high the death toll is until the conflict ends and forensic experts are called in to do analysis.

The United States and Saudi Arabia have tried to broker a cease fire and failed.⁹ But these efforts by Washington failed, in part because the Sudanese civil war is not merely a reprise of old tensions.¹⁰ New players have joined the fray – international actors whose contributions to the violence both complicated the conflict and provide fresh opportunities to resolve it.¹¹ Middle Eastern countries see especially tempting opportunities to resolve it.¹² Middle Eastern countries see especially tempting opportunities to exploit Sudan’s natural resources, access its ports along the Red Sae, use it as a base to combat the Houthis in Yemen, quash pro-democracy efforts and strengthen the hand of Islamic or anti-Islamic orientated groups.¹³   

Sudan despite the blood shed is a treasure trove of natural materials from gold to petroleum natural gas. Its strategic position is also a point of interest, as a base to deter the impact of other regional threats such as the Houthis in Yemen. Certainly, the interest in Sudan lies not just in bringing stability and security to prevent genocide or stem the flow of refugees. It is also to exploit the rich, untapped wealth beneath its soil and also to use its strategic importance. However, with progress the greatest concern when it comes to Sudan is to prevent the rise of another dictator like al-Bashir who could exploit the tensions and division to create a new regime of authoritarian brutality. It could be a while before this tragedy of genocidal proportions reaches its conclusion.

Sources

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