President Ebrahim Raisi of the Islamic Republic of Iran died in a Helicopter Crash with other senior officials in the country’s eastern Azerbaijan Province. Among the dead was foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian. Raisi’s death raises questions concerning the political future of Iran. Of course, the Supreme leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei still holds the final say over executive decisions and legislation as head of state. Raisi’s Vice President Mohammed Mokhber assumes the interim Presidency. There will be a period of five days mourning and presidential elections will be held after 50 days.
As a formal matter, (Mohammed Ali) Shabani (editor of Amwaj.media) stated this “there’s a dual power structure in Iran, with an elected government and the supreme leader”. Khamenei’s ultimate authority is unchallenged, but the president is the most senior elected official and wields considerable influence. “For example, foreign policy is within the purview of the supreme national council, and the president presides over it, but the Supreme Leader has veto power over its decisions. The President has a major role shaping and directing domestic and foreign policy, but he is one of several players.” (The Guardian)
At the same time, Shabani noted, Raisi’s formal role was not a complete description of his power. “Much about the influence and authority of the president depends on the individual holding the office,” he said. “Raisi’s primary focus was domestic, and he had a firmly conservative agenda there. But partly because of those questions over his elections, he was not generally seen as a personally consequential figure.” (The Guardian)
Raisi did not come to the Iranian presidency with a strong mandate to govern. He came to power with the supports of Khamenei and the conservative establishment. The low voter turnout of 49% in 2021 which saw Raisi become president was due to the banning of more popular and reform minded candidates by Khamenei and the Guardian Council. So, he was not held in high regard by the majority of the Iranian people. Supreme Leader Khamenei for his part wields power that puts him on par with Iran’s previous monarchs the Shahs. He is the executive head of state and commander in Chief of the armed forces.
The office of the president is subject to the Supreme Leader’s whims which stem from having a religious authority. Raisi was seen as a potential successor to Khamenei and was being trained in the presidency to take on that role when Khamenei died. In Iran the office of the president is four years while the Supreme Leader is elected by the “Assembly of Experts” for life.
The best reason to give the idea of Raisi as a candidate to succeed Khamenei credence, he (Shabani) added, is that he was being groomed as a figure who could be controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpse [the IRGC, a key base of Khamenei’s power]. But if it’s the case that he was controllable in that way, it’s unlikely that he was also irreplaceable.” Some analysts say that Raisi’s death leaves the way clear for Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, when the time comes; whoever comes next is likely to represent continuity on support for regional proxy forces, and work towards the development of a nuclear weapon. (The Guardian)
It should be clear by now, that Iran would continue its support for proxy militant groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar’Allah (the Houthis), Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas etc. This is the status quo and Modus Operandi of the country’s security forces regardless of who wields the reigns. If Mojtaba is the one to succeed his father in the position of Supreme Leader this move would be viewed as dynastical by the Iranian people, who fought so hard in 1979 to end the monarchy of the Pahlavi dynasty. It should be mentioned that as Iran develops the capacity to wield a nuclear weapon it could serve as a means to unite the Iranians behind the political leadership.
This could also be an excuse for neighbouring Saudi Arabia to follow suite. Its all a matter a matter of what the future holds now.
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
