South Africans are becoming disillusioned with the status quo in politics. There is no telling who will succeed taking the lion’s share of seats in parliament, only that we ma have a king maker.
Following the maiden election from in 1994, from 1999 a lot has happened which defines the current top five political parties: ANC, DA, EFF, IFP, and FF+. The ANC and the IFP have participated in all the elections since 1994. The ANC and the IFP have participated in all the elections since 1994. The DA and the FF+ joined in 2004, while the EFF participated in the national election for the first time since in 2014. After growing from 66.3% in 1999 or 266 seats to 69.6% or 278 seats in 2004, the ANC has been on a downward spiral. In 2009 it obtained 65.9 % or 278 seats in 2004, the ANC has been on a downward spiral. In 2009 it obtained 65.9% votes or 264 seats. This figure declined to 62.1% or 249 seats in 2014 and further declined to 57.5% or 230 seats in 2019. The ANC continues to lead with a reduced majority. (SABC News)
It should be natural and healthy for any democracy, that the governing dominant party loses its majority. The ANC has seen gains and influence be on the rise since it rode the momentum in 1994. But now its time for a change in who holds the reigns. The opposition parties have been chipping away the ANC’s majority. That is their role. But in this system of proportional representation, it is political parties rather than the voters who determine who represents them in parliament. This is a system that was not built to be permanent. There needs to be a change to a constituency based electoral voting practice. That way voters can choose their candidates directly. This will replace a system where parties determine the politicians who represent their constituents.
The opposition in the form of the Democratic Alliance, the Economic Freedom Fighters, and the Inkatha Freedom Party has the major goal of unseating the ANC. But it is populism and populist leaders who undermine democracy. Zuma’s primary goal in endorsing uMkhunto We Sizwe is to have the role of Kingmaker.
Former South African President Jacob Zuma is the wildcard element in this election. He was set to run for Parliament but was kicked of the candidate list for the new uMkhunto we Sizwe (MK) party by the by a last-minute court decision because of a 2021 conviction. Now, he’s fielding a stand in, a new role as Kingmaker. A proverbial cat with nine lives whose political career seems unbreakable despite serious corruption scandals, 82-year-old Zuma has long been a divisive figure. He is seen by some as a liberator and saviour for the poor, owing to his decades of political experience, his activism during apartheid and his persona as a “man of the people”. For others, he embodies the worse of the government corruption, as a leader who was at the helm of some of the biggest corruption or “state capture” events in the country that eventually forced him to resign in 2018.(AL Jazeera)
Zuma was certainly the most ambitious if not the most intelligent of the politicians to reach the threshold of the presidency. The former disgraced statesman is best known for exercising his “common touch”. However, it all serves as a front to a bitter, embattled old man, who could still undermine the role of his former political home to regain political influence. As King-maker (if MK takes on that role) he (Zuma) could see to it that President Cyril Ramaphosa is ousted and Deputy President Paul Mashatile assumes the presidency. Zuma’s main goal it would seem is to have corruption charged removed from him. Ramaphosa for his part is not a forceful personality. Although he wants to maintain the presidency for a second term and has more political stamina than Zuma, it is difficult to tell at this stage. Ramaphosa spent five years under Zuma as Deputy President so he should know how Zuma operates.
Deputy President of the ANC and South Africa, Mashatile is in line to potentially become the next president- if the party manages to retain the majority in these elections. The politician was once a student activist and a fighter for the ANC during apartheid, a minister, and a former premier of Gauteng – the most populous province, which houses Johannesburg and Pretoria. The ANC has traditionally presented its party president as its new head of state. A new party leader is elected every five years, but the ANC’s internal elections schedule does not align with the national presidential term. That means even if the ANC wins this election, Ramaphosa will cease to be party president – and perhaps South Africa’s president – before the next general elections in 2029, paving the way for Mashatile to become head of state.(Al Jazeera)
The issue of Mashatile’s presidency is a nerve-wracking issue. Mahsatile is still a largely unknown entity. He could come into power if Ramaphosa takes the exit and the ANC enters into a coalition with either the MK or EFF depending on who becomes the king maker after the elections. Mashatile is an even more compromising figure than Ramaphosa. As a still lesser-known entity than Ramaphosa, his agenda like that so many other politicians, is not well-known. If MK becomes the King-maker in a fragmented parliament then it could spell doom for the country. Politicians should serve the will of the people and not their own whims and agendas. But this is wishful thinking. Mashatile is clearly ambitious, but will he betray Ramaphosa for the state presidency? In a time when transparency and accountability are taking a back seat and corruption is in the driving seat, who will win?
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
