The man who managed the Sanctions on Iran under former US president Barack Obama, Richard Nephew an adjunct fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, made it clear in an article that nowadays, with respect to the new strategic developments and challenges which are tangible more than ever to for the execution of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, any renewal of international sanctions against the regime of Tehran in the way of the past years has become complex.
Nephew, referring to the failure of US efforts to make a new consensus against Iran, stated that in spite of the assumption of some people, “designing, control and execution” of sanctions is very hard and needs consumption of massive energy. This former American official likened this situation to a duck swimming in a calm water while moving its feet under water with difficulty. Mentioning the difficulties of execution of sanctions, he wrote, “It may seem that, in theory, the sanctions are executed automatically, but in reality, is not like that. For instance, Iran does not accept to observe the ban on imports of missile parts and the companies, shipping and banks are doing the same automatically.” According to Richard Nephew’s announcement, before the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2006 and with regards to such intricacies, the United States had reminded of consequences of non-execution of sanctions to governments, banks and parties providing services.
The bone of contention by the United States and the other western powers against Iran has not ensured a united front. There has long since been divisions on how to approach the Iranians’ pursuit of nuclear energy and the possibility that they may develop weapons as a result. Mr. Nephew may be referring to Iran’s sanctions as being difficult for Iran to keep afloat. But the waters the Iran duck is paddling through are more stormy than usual. Tehran is pressing ahead with the armaments it is developing. The weapons Tehran is developing through defying the ban on weapons sales will see it become a key military player in the ongoing conflicts of the Middle East or not. Iran still has much to learn concerning the value of weapons materials. Being an oil rich country, there are still many who look to benefit from doing business with Iran and its leaders.
The result is many weapons manufacturers and dealers will simply want to line their pockets. Meanwhile the quality of the weapons remains in question.
Dubai, United Arab Emirates – As Iran threatens to attack Israel over the assassination of a Hamas leader in the Iranian capital, its long-vaunted missile program offers one of the few ways for Tehran to strike back directly, but questions loom over just how much of a danger it poses. The program was behind Iran’s unprecedented drone-and-missile assault on Israel in April, when Iran became the first nation to launch such a barrage since Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein lobbed Scud missiles at Israel in the 1991 Gulf War. But few of the Iranian projectiles reached their targets. Many were shot down by a U.S.-led coalition, while others apparently failed at launch or crashed while in flight. Even those that reached Israel appeared to miss their marks. All the US assets that helped repel Iran’s attack on Israel.
The launch of the drone-and-missile programme by Iran in April, this year leaves much to be desired. The failure of some of the missiles to launch and others that malfunctioned shows that Iran may not be able to stand against an attack by the United States and its allies. The US has made it no secret of its intent to invade the Shi’ite muslim majority Islamic Republic which it perceives as working with its enemies. Embarrassingly Tehran may not be able to hold of an attack given the weakness of its missile defence system. If Washington, London, Paris and other allies are capable of defending the Zionist regime against Tehran’s attacks then Iran’s leadership needs to rethink its position. Risking a war with Israel and the western powers could be the final nail in the coffin for Islamic Republic of Iran.
Now, a new report by experts shared exclusively with The Associated Press suggests one of Tehran’s most advanced missiles is far less accurate than previously thought. The April assault showed “some ability to strike Israel,” said Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who worked on the analysis. But “if I were supreme leader, I would probably be a little disappointed.” If Iranian missiles are not able to hit targets precisely “that recasts their role,” Lair added. “They’re no longer as valuable for conducting conventional military operations. They may be more valuable simply as terror weapons.” As an example, he recalled the harassing missile fire seen on cities in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when Iran could fire a variety of missiles at a large city and hope some got through.
Iranian Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has the final say on all key military matters should be weary of performing any key strike against the Israeli state directly. A chink in the armour of the Iranian defence would offer blinding exposure to the IRI’s enemies. The inaccuracies of missiles on hitting intended targets could end up making the country the laughing stock of the region. The leadership’s resources are thinly stretched supporting various militant groups across West Asia from Lebanon’s Hezbollah to the Zaidi Houthis in Yemen. If the US intelligence perceives a sign of weakness in Iran’s defence it could be a temptation for an armed response on Iranian soil depending on who takes office in Washington. It may suit Tehran to have US Vice President Kamala Harris in office rather than one-time former president Donald J. Trump.
The stakes are high for the Iranians. Depending on what they have learned from the previous missile strikes, they will improve on their weapons arsenal. But till they manage to improve their accuracy and fire power they will have to be weary of how they deal with Washington over the JCPOA.
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
