President Cyril Ramaphosa has expressed hope that United States (US) President elect Donald Trump will make it to South Africa next year for the G20 summit. Ramaphosa clearly hopes for better relations with Washington under a second Trump Administration. The South African President joined world leaders in congratulating Trump for winning the US elections. Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th US President in January next year. This will be his second time in the White House.
This is the second time that Trump, a Republican, will be the US President. He was first elected and inaugurated as the 45th President after winning the 2016 elections. Trump is expected to take over the reins from outgoing President and Democrat Joe Biden who ousted Trump during the 2020 elections. South Africa’s Presidential Spokesperson Vincent Magwenya says the US and SA will continue to cooperate on trade and security matters. Magwenya says, “We certainly hope that President Trump will make it to SA next year when SA hosts the G20 Heads of State Summit and we certainly are positive about the maintenance of our strategic relationship with the United States politically, as well as on trade matter, where we cooperate and other areas such as security cooperation where there’s also deep cooperation between ourselves and the US.”
Trump’s first presidency was mired in controversy. From his protectionist policies of local American industries to response to the Covid Pandemic. He has been more comfortable with strongmen who manipulated him than being pragmatic with democratic minded world leaders. Cooperation on trade and security matters between Washington and Pretoria is a paramount matter for Ramaphosa. He must use South Africa’s strategic importance between Africa, the Americas and Asia to remind the incoming Trump Administration not to over look them. The major goal of Trump is to conserve American industries and jobs but he does that through protectionist policies. Financial barriers such as tariffs. These are taxes on foreign imported goods that discourage free trade. Ramaphosa needs to use his diplomatic experience and pragmatism to remind Trump that Free Trade can be fair to all sides. The G20 Summit will focus all eyes on South Africa next year amidst chaos and war around the world.
Trump’s victory sent shockwaves through local markets, prompting fears of potential economic ramifications stemming from a shift toward protectionism that could adversely affect trade relations between South Africa and its largest trading partner. North West University Business School economist Professor Raymond Parsons described the election results as a “pivotal and definitive outcome” with profound implications not just for the US economy but for the global economic landscape. Parsons cautioned that the political rhetoric surrounding Trump’s administration could translate into real policy implications, particularly through a proposed general tariff increase of 20% on all imports and potential 60% tariffs on goods from China. For South Africa, which relies heavily on the multilateral trading system, the implications of such a policy shift could result in significant risks for the country’s exports.
Trump’s undiplomatic imposition of tariffs as soon as he takes the oath of office again in January 2025 will be closely watched by the rest of the planet. South Africa under Ramaphosa needs to thread carefully over the policies of the Trump Administration for the next four years. US politics since 2016 and especially after 2020 have proven itself to be unpredictable. Professor Raymond Parsons is right to state that Trump’s election will have a “pivotal and definitive outcome” with profound implications as regards the economic landscape for the rest of the globe. Trump in his first presidency was very impulsive and unilateral. He did not consult with or engage with the advisors of his administration, leading members of the Republican party or civil society. He just issued and carried out executive orders some of which were challenged on their constitutional basis. By the courts.
“As a small open economy, South Africa has a vested interest in the multilateral trading system. Of importance to the SA economy of a Trump victory and the prospect of higher protectionism are therefore the greater risks to SA’s overall exports in general and also whether it will eventually affect the Agoa duty-free benefits in particular.” Under the previous Trump presidency between 2017 and 2021, higher tariffs in the US and retaliation saw trade wars as countries the US trades with instituted higher tariffs on goods from the US added to inflationary pressures, with deglobalisation and worries over global growth. The trade relations established under Agoa are under scrutiny, with an anticipated review of South Africa’s eligibility for the programme due to alleged shortcomings in alignment with US national security and foreign policy interests.
The harm Trump’s “protectionist” policies do to small open economies like south Africa is of huge proportions. Ramaphosa needs to raise these concerns along with the rest of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) bloc while also arguing in favour of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). Ramaphosa and his colleagues need to argue in favour of the importance of a strong and economically prosperous Africa to Trump and the benefit this could be to the US. Trump needs to be reasoned with diplomatically. With the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) only beginning to bear fruit Agoa which is a drafted bill subject to the approval of the US Congress to become law could create positive improvements such as foreign investment in African industries. Ramaphosa and his ministers in the Government of National Unity need to be diplomatic in their appeal to Trump have Agoa pass arguing that could be a boon to the United States in creating jobs on the African continent. Less migration to worry about.
It is still early days to tell what route the Trump presidency will take. If the period between 2016 and 2020 is anything to go by the rest of the world will have to watch carefully to see if President Trump has learned anything. Anything from his mistakes.
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
