Syria is entering a new era of unknown proportions. Now former President Bashir Al-Assad and his immediate family -that is his wife Asma Al-Assad and their children- have fled the capital Damascus. The rebels who have waged a fourteen year long civil war against his regime are now in control of the country. For better or worse. Bashir who had succeeded his late father Hafez Al-Assad in 2000 had been in power for twenty-four years. But then the Arab Spring happened in 2011 and Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen saw the overthrow of their respective long-time leaders. Assad went against the advice of his most trusted general Manaf Tlass who had recommended a conciliatory approach to the early public protests and instead chose brutal repression.
The Assads may have lost a country, but it is Iran that is the biggest loser in the region, already licking its wounds over the Hamas and Hezbollah setbacks in the last few months. Till a few months back, Tehran had unfettered access and influence in Damascus, Beirut, Gaza, and Sanaa. Bashar’s Syria, Hamas’ Gaza, and Hezbollah’s Lebanon provided Iran with strategic depth in the region in its war against Israel and also for the Islamic leadership against the Sunni bloc led by Saudi Arabia. Syria, in fact, had been a central pillar in Iran’s strategy to contain, if not destroy, Israel. With Assad’s fall, this strategy has received a major blow.
The Assad dynasty and regime have served as a conduit for Hezbollah to receive weapons and financial aid from Tehran. Now that Hezbollah’s closest ally is removed from the political landscape of the Middle East the group could find itself increasingly isolated from Iran. Yes, Iran is Hezbollah’s most prominent ally but Syria under Assad was its closest. (In the physical sense). Hezbollah and even Hamas which although Sunni Muslim had close ties with the regime in Damascus have experienced a crippling blow. Israel and the Syria of the Assad regime remained technically at war since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. They never signed a peace treaty. The rebels who have yet to form a new transitional leadership seems unlikely to change the status quo with Tel Aviv.
It remains to be seen what their views on the occupied Golan Height will be. This issue is unlikely to go away.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on people of Syria to seize a “historic opportunity” for a stable and peaceful future, following the sudden fall of the “dictatorial regime” of president Bashar al-Assad. The UN Secretary-General also said that the future of Syria should be determined by its people. Egypt urged all Syrian parties on Sunday to prioritise the nation’s supreme interest by unifying objectives and priorities to pave the way for a comprehensive and inclusive political process that would foster internal harmony and peace and restore Syria’s regional and international role. According to a Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement carried by Ahram Online, Cairo called on the Syrian parties to safeguard the country’s resources and national institutions.
Egypt also stressed its support for the Syrian state and people and its commitment to Syria’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, the ministry added.
The fall of Assad will leave much to be desired in terms of “safe guarding the country’s resources and national institutions”. A power Vacuum could form through which other forces could step in if Syria’s security is not stabilised. The idea that the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) which was created by Mossad (Israeli Secret Intelligence Service) will step in if the rebels’ splinter is very much a real phenomenon. Currently Hay’at Tahrir Al Shams a militant Sunni Muslim group with a conservative interpretation of Islam led by Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani who now goes by his real name of Abu Muhammad al-Golani holds the reigns of power amongst the rebels. He is not trusted by the western world despite having broken ranks with Al-Qaeda.
If Al-Golani doesn’t clean up his act and bring Syria’s religious and ethnic communities as well as political factions together, fighting could erupt again. There is a fine line between the fall of tyranny and complete disintegration for Syria. Elections still need to be held.
Saudi Arabia called on Sunday for efforts to prevent Syria from falling into disarray after the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad by Islamist rebels. Brandishing the flag of the opposition, dozens of Syrian refugees in Iraq’s Kurdistan region on Sunday celebrated the fall of ousted President Bashar al-Assad, dubbing the Syrian leader’s fall a victory for the “revolution”, AFP reported. After nearly 14 years of civil war, Syrians gathered near the centuries-old citadel with many of them breaking out into the traditional dabkeh dance on the streets. Russia said it had called for a UN Security Council meeting on Monday to discuss the situation in Syria, after a lightning offensive by Islamist-led rebels forced president Bashar al-Assad from power. Russian state news agencies report ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad and family are in Moscow and given asylum.
So, the former “Presidential family” of Syria (the Assads) have fled to their former ally Russia. This was natural as their very presence in a captured Damascus particularly for Bashir would have been a death sentence. The Saudi Monarchy particularly its de facto head Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) is weary of a disintegrated Syria and the refugee crisis that could unfold. It remains to be seen how Riyadh will deal with the rebels. The rebels themselves are a largely unknown force and are not entirely representative of the Syrian opposition’s main interests. Al-Golani is a key figure that could determine Syria’s transition and its future. His true motives and agenda are a mystery though. The UNSC is likely to request that peace keeping forces be deployed to the region and that the body’s more powerful member states open their coffers to send humanitarian aid.
As for Assad, the International Criminal Court will likely follow up on their arrest warrant and bring him to trial in the Hague. This is an outstanding arrest warrant and it remains to be seen if Moscow will now comply. With Assad’s extradition.
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
