Egypt is playing with fire as it tries to encircle Ethiopia. Egypt still fears the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) that Addis Ababa is having built on the Blue Nile will cut off a much-needed supply of flood water for its farming and other necessities. Ethiopia has reassured Cairo time and time again that the construction of GERD is to generate hydropower for the country’s electricity market. Egypt is seeking to make alliances with Sudan, Somalia, Uganda and other African nations to encircle Ethiopia possibly for war.
The Nile River is a vital resource for millions in Eastern Africa, and its management has been shaped by historical agreements established during British colonial rule, particularly the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and its 1959 amendment. These treaties have created historical injustices and established a power dynamic that heavily favors Egypt and Sudan while overlooking the need for the economic development of upstream countries like Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya. These inequitable agreements restrict the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and other irrigation projects. This impedes Ethiopia’s economic growth and energy security, as the GERD is set to provide electricity to millions of Ethiopians who currently lack reliable power. In contrast, Egypt is deeply concerned that the GERD will significantly diminish its share of the Nile’s waters, posing significant threats to its agricultural productivity, food security, and at least 90 percent of its fresh water.
These concerns—though plausible—stem from agreements that did not adequately consider the rights and needs of upstream countries, making the Nile River a focal point of geopolitical friction. This legacy of unequal control has fueled ongoing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. The escalating tensions underscore the urgent need for an impartial water resource management framework that considers the rights and needs of all Nile Basin countries.
The main purpose behind Ethiopia’s decision to build the mega dam known as GERD was to generate hydropower for electricity. This new surplus in electricity could then bolster its infrastructure development as well as modernize its economy to an industrial powerhouse. Egypt being a largely desert country that is heavily dependent on the Nile River waters for its agriculture and food security fears the construction of the dam will halt the flow of the river. Sudan for its part is mired in a civil war that in itself jeopardizes regional security. The treaties that determine how the Nile waters are distributed need to be reviewed and possibly rewritten to correct the outdated versions. The best solution would be for the leaders of the Ethiopian, Egyptian and Sudanese governments to come to the negotiating table sit down and discuss a viable solution to their disagreements moving forward.
The African Union which is based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital and the United Nations need to have all the relevant parties back on track to reason. If not and Cairo risks a war over the distribution of the Nile’s waters and GERD, retaliation by Ethiopia could be severe. War is never the best answer to solving an international dispute and participants on both sides can go down in common ruin. This dam is being built as a key stone to development and progress it should not become a symbol of division and chaos.
Egypt has historically used every tool at its disposal to prevent Ethiopia from asserting its rights over the river. For decades, it has sought to thwart Ethiopia’s ambitions by lobbying international financial institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, to block funding for Ethiopian development projects. These efforts were designed to stifle Ethiopia’s vision of harnessing its hydroelectric potential and achieving economic growth. Yet, in the face of this opposition, Ethiopia has persevered. To Egypt’s dismay, the Ethiopian people have demonstrated remarkable unity and resolve. The GERD, now nearing completion, is a testament to their steadfast commitment. Funded entirely by the Ethiopian people, the dam’s groundbreaking in 2012 sent shockwaves through Egypt. Despite efforts to block the project, the Ethiopian people remained resolute in their determination to see it through to completion.
Egypt has long used the argument that while they are a desert country and rely heavily on the Nile for their water supply, the downstream nations such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda rely on abundant rainfall (more or less). The government of Egyptian President Abdel Fata el Sisi needs to realize that the current status quo that has been in place since the Nineteenth Century is not sustainable. El Sisi is a vein man, who has indulged in mega projects of his own. But these projects are ludicrous, extravagant and serve no real purpose. The Ethiopians are a very proud people who have rallied around the construction of GERD due to the prosperity it will bring. They will fight tooth and nail to protect it. The Egyptians are also a proud people that will not accept any threats to their precious water source.
However, reason needs to prevail.
In a troubling echo of its past efforts to sabotage Ethiopia’s development, it is now attempting to destabilize the Horn of Africa. It has deployed troops in Somalia and South Sudan under the guise of military cooperation, but its true intent appears to be the disruption of regional stability. Ethiopia is, aware of Egypt’s maneuvers, watches its historic rival with vigilance. Despite these provocations, Ethiopia remains committed to peace in the region. The country’s long-standing efforts to bring stability to Somalia, including the sacrifices made by its troops, are remembered with pride by the Ethiopian people. Ethiopia will continue to hold high the banner of peace, both in the Horn and beyond, undeterred by the actions of its historic adversary. Egypt’s actions in the Horn of Africa risk not only destabilizing the region but also backfiring on Cairo itself.
Egypt and its authoritarian president are playing a dangerous game here. One that could see an escalation that could engulf it. At a time when the rest of Africa is taking its first steps to introduce a free market and trade through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) there needs to be a new approach with maturity to the distribution of resources such as water. Cairo and Addis Ababa cannot be allowed to go down a path of war that will not end well for either of them. Yes, a stable Somalia is in Ethiopia’s best interests and Addis Ababa needs to keep having good relations with Mogadishu. However, neither Ethiopia not Egypt should resort to arms. There is already enough instability in the Nile Basin region and Horn of Africa with Sudan and Somalia which are very fragile right now.
Instability in the countries concerned is not in any one’s best interests.
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
