Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (nickname MBS) is not in attendance at this year’s BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia. As 24 leaders old and new swelled the ranks of delegations at the Summit in Kazan City, Saudi Arabia’s decision to join the organization remains in limbo. Riyadh although placing a cautious toe in the ocean of opportunities and traps the BRICS Plus organization is not becoming a full member. The original founding members of the organization Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa approved the joining of the Saudi monarchy and four other nations at the Brics Summit 2023 in South Africa. Riyadh’s membership was set to start in February 2024 but the oil rich kingdom stated at the last minute they were not yet joining the group.
In February, a Saudi official source told Reuters that Saudi Arabia was still considering an invitation to become a member of the Brics. “Saudi Arabia has not yet responded to the invitation to join BRICS. It is still under consideration,” the Saudi official source said in a statement to Reuters. Earlier that month, in the wake of tensions between the United States and Russia-China combine, Saudi economy minister Faisal Alibrahim was quoted as saying that the kingdom was still looking into the matter and had not yet joined the group. The same was reiterated later that month by South Africa’s envoy to Russia. “Saudi Arabia is still going through its own processes. One, as a nation state. Two, together with the BRICS shepherds. Saudi Arabia is not yet, has not yet endorsed. We will see it as we move towards [the summit in] Kazan. As South Africa, we are ready,” said envoy Mzuvukile Geoff Maqetuka to Russian state media.
The Saudis are displaying hesitancy to join the BRICS plus fold so as not to upset their allies in Washington and the European capitals. MBS is more afraid of their anger than anything else. He does not want to appear as anti-western for fear of losing the support of the United States. If MBS makes them an enemy, he might find himself losing power in Riyadh the same way other anti-western challengers have done. This could then see him replaced in a typical palace coup by a more compliant prince. The Saudi regime is on a tight rope trying to balance its domestic needs on the one hand with foreign demands and expectations on the other. One slip and it could capsize under the weight through an uprising at home depending on the cause.
As suspense over Saudi Arabia’s membership’s status continues, there has been speculation that the kingdom has delayed formally entering (the) group over reservations about the group’s character. As Saudi Arabia remains a key US ally, it appears to be uncertain about ramping up engagement with principal US and Western adversaries Russia and China — that too at a time when Russia and China are closer than ever. In recent days, Russia and China along with Iran and North Korea have formed a bloc to undermine the West and prop a new world order. Even though Russia or China do not formally label Brics a part of their anti-West bloc or their agenda to undermine the West, their engagements with Brics and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are seen as the broad agenda of undermining the West.
However, the presence of countries with friendly ties to the West, such as India and United Arab Emirates (UAE), in these blocs function as a counterweight to attempts to turn these blocs into instruments of an anti-West agenda.
The Saudis have rather an ambiguous relationship with the western world particularly the United States since the eleventh of September Attacks in 2001. MBS and his regime may not have been directly involved in any way, being so relatively young, but I believe both sides know more than they let on concerning who shares knowledge of involvement. MBS is mainly concerned about modernizing the kingdom in time for when the oil runs out. Till that time, he wants to stay alive and in power. MBS had to scale back on his pet project NEOM by the trillion. There is a risk his country could go bankrupt. MBS is trying to balance out his options between east and west. Acceptance of BRICS membership could afford the Saudis access to new markets and business opportunities. Acceptance of BRICS membership does not have to be a poisoned chalice.
Even nations like the UAE and India endure better ties with both sides of the diplomatic arena because of BRICS. India being the country with the second largest population in the world would be strong enough to oppose any attempt by Beijing and Moscow to follow through on attempts to turn the bloc into a war council against the west. A significant problem would becoming a full member of BRICS for Riyadh would be relations with Tehran.
The meeting of the Brics di Win, the first with the new composition expanded to 10 countries and no longer to the only 5 that make up the acronym (Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa), was a success, from their point of view, for Russian and Brazilian diplomacy. Vladimir Putin in fact, isolated from the West by the invasion of Ukraine, obtained a further enlargement of the alternative world front to the Euro-Atlantic axis: after the entry this year of Iran, Saudi Arabia (which however sent a secondary representative to the Kazan meeting precisely because of the tense relations with Tehran), the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt, since 2025 13 other countries should join the now former emerging ones.
The formation of BRICS was meant to be a counterweight to the excesses of the western powers. The entry of the Saudi Kingdom into the organization at the same time as the Islamic Republic of Iran would not have been easy. Feathers would ruffle. Brasilia, Moscow, New Delhi, Beijing and Pretoria are all to aware of the unpredictable fiery sparks that fly between Riyadh and Tehran. Right now, it is off putting. The Saudis may not be looking to begin a war with the Iranians, but with the war in Gaza Iran has found itself in the anti-western camp while the Saudi monarchy (that is MBS and his inner circle) are increasingly sympathetic to Israel. This is an open secret.
Saudi Arabia may eventually join the BRICS Organization when tensions have cooled down. That would be a face-saving triumph for MBS.
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
