The term “Black Swan” popularised in the world of Business and Investment, can also be applied to the arena of geopolitics. “Black Swan” refers to an event that is “impossible” but can and sometimes does occur. The events that took place in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela is a “Black Swan” in geopolitics – these are unpredictable incidents, that upend the strategic rules of the game. However, the American operation “Special Resolve” has altered the game board, entirely. Following the unilateral strike on Venezuela and President Nicolás Maduro’s capture, South Africa must balance a delicate act of its Western trade partnerships with the BRICS plus ties and ideological commitments it professes to support. This is a moment of acute political reckoning.
There is mutual agreement between the Presidency of Cyril Ramaphosa and the two major opposition parties in parliament – the Umkhonto We Sizwe (MK) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – that Maduro’s capture is an affront to international protocols.
Government’s response avoids the fire-and-brimstone rhetoric of the streets, opting instead for the cold logic of the courtroom. By leaning heavily on Article 2(4) of the UN Charter—which prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity of any state—Pretoria is positioning itself not as a defender of Maduro the man, but of the system that keeps smaller nations safe from larger ones. For the rational observer, DIRCO (Department of International Relations and Cooperation)’s argument is the most chilling. It correctly identifies that if the “rules-based international order” can be suspended whenever a Great Power feels sufficiently provoked, then we are not living in a global community, but in a global jungle. As the statement dryly notes: “When we break these norms, we invite anarchy.” For a small, open economy like South Africa, anarchy is bad for business. And a Black Swan threat we’d forgotten about.
The political and business elite with in Pretoria, Cape Town and Johannesburg have a right to feel uncomfortable about Washington’s extradition of a head of state. On the other hand, the MK under former president Jacob Zuma and the EFF under Julius Malema are staunch admirers of Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez’s nationalization policies. Nationalization is not a policy supported by the South African business class. However, uncertainty about what will replace a dictatorial regime, remains a cause for concern across the political and business spectrum. The rules-based order is the pillar on which the protocols of international law rests. US President Donald Trump’s “special military operation” in Venezuela exposed the metaphorical cracks in international law. It showed there is little room for international legal procedure and the Trump Administration can act with impunity.
This invites distrust among America’s allies and trade partners. With regard to its economy, South Africa could strengthen ties not only with BRICS but also with African nations such as those in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Extending ties to the European nations, Britain, France and Germany which are smaller economies like South Africa should also serve to balance relations.
The EFF itself has warned that Ramaphosa could also face an extradition on fabricated charges, while MK warned against Washington’s agenda to gain a greater foothold in South African resources.
While the EFF is focused on ideology and sovereignty, the MK Party is following the money. Its response, issued by Nhlamulo Ndhlela, cuts straight to the economic jugular: oil. The MK Party views this through the lens of the “Resource Curse.” It argues this isn’t about democracy or drugs, but about the world’s largest oil reserves. In the party’s view, this is a “renewed enforcement of the Monroe Doctrine,” a 19th-century US policy that claimed Latin America as Washington’s backyard. Crucially, MK contextualises this within the shifting global power dynamics of 2026. The Zulu-dominated party sees the attack as a direct response to the rise of a multipolar world and the expansion of BRICS. By targeting a key BRICS partner, the US is seen to be sending a message to the entire bloc.
It should be taken into account that beneath the rhetoric and shock lies fear. The US under Trump wants to play a more assertive and unilateral role, one that is aggressive. This could lead to the nations of the developing world, South Africa included, to seek closer relations with Russia, China and even India. New Delhi, for its part, remains a still unknown force on the international stage. The European nations too, should have their role to play in strengthening relations. The end result of Washington’s unilateralism could be further isolation. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping could reap the spoils. On the South African front, the MK and the EFF are looking to exploit the uncertainty of the situation, while the ANC could remain in an imperious state. There is also the opportunity for President Cyril Ramaphosa to strengthen economic and diplomatic ties with in SADC and the African Union (AU) and trade ties with the nations of Europe as well as the far east.
Coordinating defence policy should be a key priority. A new international order is taking shape, and the global market will be severely affected. South Africa’s leadership must best be prepared.
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
