Yemen is not what it was before 2011. The civil war which ensued after the fall of long-time dictator/president Ali Abdullah Saleh has seen the Houthis seize large swaths of the North and the Capital Sana’a. This led to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates intervening to weaken Houthi control and restore the provisional government now headquartered in Aden, the country’s chief port. Now with US President Elect Donald Trump set to retake the Oval Office it remains to be seen how he will respond to the Houthis’ attacks on American ships off the coastal areas under their control.
The current US stance represents a notable reversal of (President Joe) Biden’s earlier policies on Yemen and the Houthis. One of his first foreign policy actions was suspending offensive weapon sales to Saudi Arabia in February 2021 in response to the diplomatic backlash following an emerging humanitarian crisis in Yemen. This move significantly curtailed the Saudi-led coalition’s bombing campaign, which had begun in March 2015 following a Houthi insurgency the previous year. Biden’s policy shift helped pave the way for a UN-brokered ceasefire agreement in April 2022, bringing Yemen to a fragile state of ‘no peace, no war’. Biden also lifted the designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT), a policy Trump had implemented during his first term. This change was intended to allow humanitarian aid to reach Yemen, but it also ended the Houthis’ international isolation.
The Houthis are Shi’ites of the Zaidi subsect who follow a strict interpretation of their branch’s Islamic teachings. The decision by Washington in the early years of the Biden Administration to terminate the group’s position as an FTO was to end the starvation of Yemeni children and bring some stability to the nation’s chaotic state. The suspension of weapons’ sales to Riyadh also has a huge impact on creating the current armistice in the country. Yemen remains in a fragile limbo between the current provisional government which controls the South and East and the Houthis who control the North and West. The Houthis since the war in Gaza began last year in October have been targeting ships destined for Israel much to their own detriment. Trump will not be so lenient on them as Biden, but that will depend on how he approaches the situation. The risk of escalation would be high again.
As Yemen remained in political deadlock, the Houthis strengthened their control in Yemen, with assistance from Iran, which supplied them with advanced weaponry, including long-range drones, missiles, and even hypersonic missiles capable of reaching Israel and targeting Red Sea shipping lanes. The Houthis, in short, have become a much more formidable force since Trump’s last presidency. Despite limited US and UK airstrikes aimed at degrading Houthi capabilities, the group has remained defiant. While they have suffered some losses, their actions, which they continue to frame as supporting Palestinians, have gained them unprecedented popularity in Yemen and other Arab countries, strengthening their influence.
“Trump inherited from the Biden administration the US-led coalition’s actions against the Houthis, so these operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden will continue as long as Houthi attacks persist,” Ahmed Nagi, Yemen researcher at the International Crisis Group, told The New Arab.
Tehran has long been the Houthis’ benefactor in the region much to the chagrin of the Saudi Kingdom and the UAE. Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman and Emirati President and Abu Dhabi ruler Sheik Muhammad bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan will be somewhat relieved that Trump will be back in the White House to support them in undermining the Houthis. This has never been a simple task. The Houthis’ main strongholds and supply bases are in the mountains of Yemen. This dense and mountainous terrain will prove even more difficult for Saudis and Emiratis to penetrate and take out the bases. This is given due to the fact that Houthis are now better equipped and entrenched.
Trump will have to navigate support for the Saudi led coalition would re-opening negotiations with Tehran concerning its nuclear programme. However, the Houthis are known to largely act independently of Tehran. They may accept weapons and other aid from the Iranians but they may enter into direct negotiations with the Saudis. Meanwhile the Pentagon under Biden has carried out another consecutive night of strikes in Yemen’s north against the Houthis.
On Saturday, the US used fighter jets to carry out a series of strikes against Houthi sites in at least three different locations, including facilities the Iran-backed rebel group used to store advanced conventional weapons that have been used to target US warships and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The Red Sea is a vital waterway that connects to the Suez Canal, through which 10% to 15% of the world trade passes. Activities along the strait have effectively closed amid ongoing attacks. The Houthis, along with Hamas and Hezbollah, are all part of an Iran-led alliance spanning Yemen, Syria, Gaza and Iraq that has attacked Israel and its allies since the war in Gaza began. They say they won’t stop striking Israel and its allies until a ceasefire is reached in the Palestinian enclave.
The passage between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sae is a vital thorough fare for the world’s oil shipping. It leads straight to Egypt’s Suez Canal and then into the Mediterranean and then Europe. From there it’s the Atlantic Ocean and the Americas. The Houthis’ main goal in blocking trade across in the Red Sea is to quadrupled the oil prices across the world. They also block trade to the Zionist state of Israel which will earn the Trump Administration’s ire. Trump however will have to display the necessary caution he does not possess when approaching the Yemeni situation. The Houthis will be better experienced in combat and more disciplined to beat. The mountainous terrain of their homeland gives them an advantage over any attacks by the Saudis, the Emiratis and the Americans. The best solution would be for Trump to arrange a ceasefire between Gaza and Israel.
This could cool tensions with the Houthis who embarked on the raids in the Red Sae to hinder Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Till Trump takes office (again) in January all any one can do is wait and see how the situation develops.
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
