There has been a lot of back and forth on reaching a peace agreement between the United States (US), Israel and Iran. At the heart of these talks are the mediation efforts by Qatari and Pakistani facilitators to conclude the negotiations. Qatari negotiators were in Tehran on Sunday morning as part of efforts to bring the agreement to a conclusion aimed at ending the war between Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran. This was according to a source with direct knowledge of the situation who told Reuters.
A proposed US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the Middle East war is expected to be signed on Sunday, according to US President Donald Trump and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who is mediating the talks. The agreement is expected to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran, with nuclear negotiations to follow. Draft terms reportedly also cover the release of frozen Iranian assets and sanctions relief.
Iran is unlikely to end its programme of nuclear energy for peaceful means. The war has taken its toll on Iran’s economy, but the US is experiencing difficulties in infiltrating the country’s nuclear testing sites. These sites are deep beneath the earth. Trump is unable to launch a ground invasion of Iran due to the country being practically surrounded by a high mountainous terrain. Right now, oil prices are escalating as the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman remains blocked.
Since imposing its blockade, Iran has demanded vessels obtain permission from its armed forces before transiting the waterway, and has established a new body to oversee it and collect tolls. The US has responded with its own blockade of Iranian ports. The US military’s Central Command said earlier Saturday Iran had “launched multiple one-way attack drones in an attempt to strike commercial ships transiting the Strait.” It added that “US forces have downed all of them in recent hours.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in an interview with state television Friday, had said the deal on the table called for the lifting of the US naval blockade. “The administration of Strait of Hormuz will no longer be the same as before,” he added, calling the waterway one of Iran’s “main instruments of deterrence.”
The US has repeatedly said Iran remaining in control of the strait would be unacceptable, and Trump’s post made no mention of tolls or other arrangements.
The balance of peace and security in the strait of Hormuz has been overturned. Trump and his inner circle have overplayed their hands with this invasion. An invasion that has ended in stalemate. Fairly predictable. Tehran will now do everything in its power to pursue nuclear weapons as a deterrence. This is a possibility. The Iranian regime will not take attempts by Washington to dislodge it or cause harm to its people lightly. Washington may have accelerated Iran’s efforts to develop its own nuclear arsenal. The Iranians may not yet be interested in having a full-scale war with the Israelis, but that might change. The Israelis for their part have the largest and possibly only arsenal of nuclear weapons in Western Asia. Meanwhile Iran will have to reach an agreement with the US on opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices have escalated and it is the consumers at the base of the economic and social hierarchy who are paying the price. It could be years before the world economy recovers.
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
