Recent election polls show a major political shift across South African municipalities. Indeed, two independent polling organizations reached the exact same conclusion. The Social Research Foundation (SRF) and SABI surveyed voters across key metropolitan areas. Consequently, their survey data highlights falling support for the ruling party.
National Polling Reveals ANC Decline
Nationally, the African National Congress (ANC) now averages 35% support among voters. Meanwhile, the Democratic Alliance (DA) holds second place at 27%.
Earlier SRF surveys placed the ANC between 34% and 39%. However, subsequent polls from SABI and News24 showed further declines down to 32%. Therefore, these fluctuating numbers reflect growing voter disillusionment across the country.
DA Leads Council Race in Gauteng Metros
The political outlook appears very clear in Gauteng’s major cities. For example, the DA leads candidate preferences in both Johannesburg and Pretoria/Tshwane.
However, coalition mathematics presents a major hurdle for the opposition. Indeed, current projections indicate DA candidate Helen Zille may not secure the Johannesburg mayoral seat. Consequently, rival political parties must prepare for complex coalition negotiations after the vote.
MK Party Surges in eThekwini Metro
Voter sentiment has shifted dramatically across KwaZulu-Natal’s primary metropolitan region. Historically, the ANC enjoyed overwhelming support throughout the Durban metro. Currently, however, the ruling party struggles to retain its core voter base in eThekwini.
Instead, former President Jacob Zuma’s Umkhonto We Sizwe (MK) party leads the region by a wide margin. Four separate polls from SRF, SABI, News24, and Collective Sense place MK support at 39%, 40%, 43%, and 44%. Therefore, the MK party has rapidly established itself as the dominant political force in Durban.
Coalition Governance Will Shape Local Councils
Despite their impressive numbers, the MK party still lacks an outright majority. Meanwhile, opposition parties like the DA and IFP continue actively campaigning for urban votes. However, neither party matches the MK party’s current political momentum in the metro.
Ultimately, the upcoming 4 November municipal elections will produce hung councils across major cities. Whichever party secures the most seats will hold the power to negotiate for the mayor’s office. Therefore, political coalitions will inevitably determine who governs eThekwini in the new term.