Russia’s war in Ukraine took a huge set back when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he believes his government has the opportunity to end the war with Russia by next year, as long as his nation receives support from its allies. Zelensky says “In October, November and December we have a chance to move things toward peace and lasting stability,” he told the Ukraine-South East Europe summit in Dubrovnik.
Zelensky is clearly hopeful of victory.
06:21 , Arpan Rai
The Russian military is looking to make significant advances on the battlefield before muddy ground conditions in the autumn set in, a US-based think-tank has said. “The Russian military command has likely ordered Russian forces to conduct a relatively high tempo of mechanised assaults in Ukraine to pursue significant tactical advances before muddy ground conditions in fall 2024 constrain mechanised manoeuvres,” the Institute for the Study of War said. “Poor weather conditions in fall 2024 and early winter 2024-2025 will likely complicate and constrain both mechanised and infantry manoeuvres, but Russian forces may seek to maintain their consistent offensive pressure in eastern Ukraine despite these difficulties.
“A Russian milblogger claimed on 9 October that muddy seasonal conditions have already started in Kursk oblast (Russian Province) and are constraining manoeuvre for wheeled vehicles,” it said.
The Russians are notorious for their toughness and savagery. The original goal of the Russians was to take hold of the whole of Ukraine and install a puppet government. Now it looks like they may settle for a large part of Ukraine’s territory. The Russians under their President Vladimir Putin have been ruthless and relentless throughout the war but so have the Ukrainians. However, it is the Kremlin which is on the offensive. The winter in that region which is going to break out is known to be brutally cold. However, both warring sides are used to this form of weather given they are neighbours and Slavic peoples of the same region.
However, it is the Russian soldiers who are going to be worn out by the war and are likely to be propelled back depending on how the Ukrainians utilize the opportunity.
06:04 , Arpan Rai
Russian officials evacuated the village of Rodnikovy in southern Adygeya Republic region due to a fire after a drone attack, regional officials said. Region head Murat Kumpilov said the attack targeted the suburbs of the city of Maykop and there were no casualties. The Khanskaya military air base is located near the city.
05:43 , Arpan Rai
Ukraine’s military said it struck a Russian weapons arsenal, including those Russia got from North Korea, in the Bryansk region. The Institute for the Study of War cited Ukrainian military officials as saying that the facility stored glide bombs, missile and artillery systems, and North Korean- and Iranian-provided weapons.
Russia seems to have under estimated the determination and perseverance of the Ukrainians in desiring to defend their homeland. This was a critical error on the part of Putin and the Kremlin leadership. They have allowed Ukrainian soldiers ample opportunity to become battle hardened when defending their homeland. This has allowed the Ukrainians with the assistance of the western world to push back and exploit their enemy’s weakness. Russia may rely somewhat on a reluctant China and an unpredictable North Korea for support. But Ukraine is the country fighting for its sovereignty and possibly its existence and survival as state. This is what gives strength to its soldiers to fight on as well as the ammunition from the Western powers.
In this regard from the start, it was Putin who was going to be in the Wrong and Ukraine was going to be in the right.
Ukraine claimed to have destroyed up to 400 Shahed Iranian-style kamikaze drones stashed by Russian forces at a warehouse in Krasnodar region. A huge inferno at an ammunition depot in Oktyabrsky, near Yeysk, saw new explosions lasting for hours following the pinpoint hit and costing as much as £16 million. In a separate overnight drone attack in an adjoining region, Ukraine damaged the Khanskaya military airfield in Russia’s Adygea Republic, used for strikes by Vladimir Putin’s forces in the war. The destruction of the Shahed drones – massively used by the dictator to strike Ukraine – was claimed by Kyiv’s armed forces general staff and SBU intelligence service.
The destruction of the warehouse containing the drones was a major victory claimed by the Ukrainians. It indicates that strategically the tide is turning against the Russian Federation’s military. However, Ukraine’s war in its defence is certain to go its way depending on the continued funding from the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This also largely depends on who wins the US Presidential election to succeed incumbent President Joe Bide. Be it former president Donald Trump or current Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump is a questionable and unethical character and Harris is not a truly transparent politician although she has more experience than Trump. Trump however can easily be manipulated by Putin to gain an unfair advantage in ending the war.
The Ukrainians who could lose significantly from a second Trump presidency would clearly prefer a Harris Administration in the Oval Office. The outcome of this war will be determined by the voters in the US over thousands of kilometres away.
Article written by:
Yacoob Cassim
Journalist at Radio Al Ansaar
